Lisbon should return in 2022 to levels of attendance close to 2019 (Photo: LC)
(ETC) regularly analyzes the evolution and trends of the market. Its latest report, published a dozen days ago, is more optimistic.
ETC analyses that in 2021, the high vaccination coverage in Europe, the EU’s Covid-19 digital certificate and the easing of travel restrictions have already helped tourism to recover. Admittedly, Europe has recorded a 62% drop in tourist arrivals in 2021 compared to 2019. Croatia (-37%), France (-39%) and Monaco (-40%) were exceptions, however. The three steps recorded the smallest declines among European states.
Omicron variant at the end of last year, however, played spoilsport. It thwarted the accelerated recovery that was observed until the fall of 2021. The spread of the virus has resulted in a series of new travel restrictions. ETC estimates that the first quarter of 2022 will be heavily impacted.
However, the outlook for 2022 remains positive, according to ETC. It now estimates that travel demand in 2022 will be only 20% below pre-pandemic levels. The recovery would be driven primarily by demand for domestic and intra-European travel. Domestic travel is expected to exceed its pre-pandemic peaks in 2022 while intra-European travel is expected to be 35% lower in volume than in 2019. All international travel (short- and long-haul) will only exceed its 2019 performance in 2024. A time perspective that would also apply to business travel.
In the long-haul markets, while ETC believes that European tourism should benefit from the reopening of borders between North America and Europe, it estimates that travel volumes should very quickly return to pre-pandemic levels. However, Asia will still be missing out with the absence of major markets such as China and Japan. ETC expects long-haul travel to be 48% lower in 2022 than in 2019.
Council of Europe to ease restrictions by March 1
One positive development, however, is the Council of Europe’s most recent recommendation to make travel easier for non-Europeans. On Tuesday, February 22, the Council adopted an updated recommendation on the temporary restriction of non-essential travel to the EU. Covid-19 restrictions should be applied taking into account both the situation in the third country and the status of the individual.
The EU Member States have agreed on a recommendation on the temporary restriction of non-essential travel to the EU.
E should therefore allow non-essential travel for vaccinated persons. This would include people who have received an EU or WHO approved vaccine. People who have recovered from Covid would also be able to travel to the EU. Some of these travelers, however, may be required to undergo a PCR test before departure. This would include those who do not have an EU-approved vaccine. They could also undergo a short quarantine.
The Council of Europe believes that the increase in vaccination rates and the number of people receiving a booster dose are now changing the game. As well as the increasing number of certificates issued by third countries recognized as equivalent to the EU digital certificate. This new recommendation will begin to apply on March 1, 2022. And give a serious boost to the travel industry. Even if new uncertainties are on the horizon with the tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
I’m Michelle, and I love to travel. As a former hotel expert for one of the world’s largest hotel chains, I’ve stayed in nearly every type of room imaginable (including many that were not so desirable!). Nowadays, I am fortunate enough to be able to explore the world on my own terms. From international flights to learning different languages, there is nothing too far out of reach!